Abstract

Iraq is grappling with a multifaceted crisis driven primarily by the adverse impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and erratic rainfall patterns have exacerbated water scarcity, leaving the nation’s once-thriving agricultural sector in disarray. Climate change has not only disrupted ecosystems but also heightened the risk of waterborne diseases by overwhelming Iraq’s fragile water and sanitation infrastructure. The resulting contamination has led to outbreaks of cholera and other diarrheal diseases, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations, particularly in displacement camps and informal settlements.

Furthermore, climate change has become a powerful driver of internal displacement and social instability. As rivers dry up and agricultural yields plummet, rural communities are being forced to abandon their homes in search of water and livelihood opportunities. This mass displacement has intensified competition for limited resources, such as water and arable land, often escalating into violent disputes, particularly in southern Iraq. The country now faces a vicious cycle: environmental degradation and resource scarcity fuel displacement and conflict, which in turn strain urban centers and exacerbate existing governance challenges.

Beyond its borders, Iraq’s climate crisis has triggered migration flows, with more Iraqis seeking refuge in Europe and neighbouring countries. These patterns highlight the global implications of climate change, as countries worldwide must grapple with the challenges of accommodating climate refugees.

This article explores the interconnected dimensions of Iraq’s climate crisis; waterborne diseases, displacement, resource conflicts, and migration, and underscores the urgent need for coordinated action. Iraq’s experience serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating how climate change amplifies existing vulnerabilities, destabilizes nations, and creates ripple effects far beyond national borders. Addressing Iraq’s crisis will require a multifaceted approach, combining national reforms, international cooperation, and climate resilience strategies that could serve as a model for other regions grappling with similar challenges.

Introduction

Iraq is facing a critical juncture where the impacts of climate change intersect with its historical challenges of water management and environmental conservation. Once celebrated as the heart of ancient Mesopotamia, the region's vibrant rivers and fertile lands are now under immense strain. The steady decline in water resources, coupled with rising temperatures, has created an urgent crisis affecting public health, agriculture, and livelihoods across the country.

Over the past century, the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has diminished significantly, with some estimates suggesting a reduction of up to 90%. This dramatic decrease is attributed to multiple factors, including upstream water usage by neighbouring countries, inefficient water management systems, and the growing effects of climate change. As a result, Iraq faces severe challenges in ensuring reliable access to clean water for its population. Prolonged droughts and desertification have not only reduced agricultural output but also contributed to increasing rural-to-urban migration, straining urban centers that are already facing limited resources.

The environmental challenges confronting Iraq are among the most severe in the world. According to the United Nations, the country is ranked as one of the five most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, which are increasing nearly twice as fast as the global average in some areas, are exacerbating water scarcity, reducing biodiversity, and creating conditions for more frequent and intense sand and dust storms. The shrinking Mesopotamian marshes, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, exemplify the devastating effects of these changes. These wetlands, once a thriving ecosystem supporting local communities and wildlife, have seen significant degradation, with far-reaching consequences for Iraq’s environment and economy.

This crisis has profound implications for Iraq’s future. Water scarcity is undermining the agricultural sector, which has historically been a cornerstone of the nation’s economy and food security. Communities dependent on farming and fishing are losing their livelihoods, forcing many to migrate in search of better opportunities. These population movements, combined with limited access to essential resources in urban areas, are creating new challenges that require urgent attention and innovative solutions.

Iraq is actively pursuing strategies to address these challenges. Investments in sustainable water management, the adoption of modern irrigation techniques, and the promotion of renewable energy are some of the measures being implemented to build resilience against climate change. Efforts to restore the marshlands, introduce drought-resistant crops, and encourage community-based water conservation practices are also gaining momentum. However, these initiatives require greater support from international partners to ensure their success on a larger scale.

Displacement Within and Beyond Iraq: A Climate Migration

Climate change has become a powerful driver of both internal and external migration in Iraq, creating a ripple effect that extends far beyond the country’s borders. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and reduced water availability have rendered vast areas of farmland uninhabitable, particularly in southern Iraq. Farmers and agricultural workers, unable to sustain their livelihoods, are abandoning their lands and moving to urban centers or informal settlements, where access to clean water, sanitation, and basic services remains scarce. An estimated 1.2 million Iraqis currently live in informal settlements, often deprived of essentials such as clean water, electricity, and healthcare.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), water scarcity in provinces such as Basra, Muthanna, and Dhi Qar has triggered large-scale displacements, with dire consequences for urban centers already grappling with limited resources. The cyclical nature of this crisis is evident: displacement increases pressure on urban infrastructure, exacerbating water shortages and sanitation challenges. This, in turn, drives more people into overcrowded informal settlements, creating fertile ground for disease outbreaks and social unrest.

Faced with these dire conditions, many displaced individuals are seeking refuge beyond Iraq’s borders. Countries in Europe and the Middle East have witnessed a steady rise in asylum applications from Iraqis, with climate-related displacement and the collapse of rural economies among the most cited reasons. These migration patterns underscore the global dimensions of Iraq’s crisis, as climate-induced displacement becomes both a national and international challenge, requiring coordinated responses from regional and global stakeholders.

Waterborne Diseases: A Growing Threat

Iraq’s water sanitation infrastructure has been overwhelmed by rising demand from displaced populations and urban expansion. Decades of war, economic sanctions, and neglect have further eroded the capacity of public health systems. Contaminated water sources serve as breeding grounds for waterborne diseases, including cholera, typhoid, and diarrheal diseases, which account for a significant portion of preventable deaths.

In recent years, cholera outbreaks have become increasingly frequent. Major outbreaks were reported in 2015, 2017, and 2022, with southern provinces such as Basra being the hardest hit. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), up to 70% of infant deaths in some regions are linked to diarrheal diseases stemming from poor water quality and inadequate sanitation. This crisis is particularly pronounced in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), where overcrowding and limited access to clean water and hygiene facilities create ideal conditions for the spread of disease. For example, a 2023 report by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) highlighted that displaced communities in southern Iraq face a 40% higher risk of contracting waterborne illnesses compared to non-displaced populations.

Conflict Over Resources

As Iraq’s natural resources dwindle, competition over water and arable land has escalated into a critical challenge, fuelling tensions that often lead to localized conflicts. The scarcity of water in particular has become a flashpoint for disputes, especially in southern provinces where agriculture is heavily dependent on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. With reduced water flow due to upstream damming in neighbouring countries, rising temperatures, and inefficient water use, Iraq’s rural communities are struggling to meet even their basic needs. Tribal clashes over water rights have become more frequent, with some disputes escalating into violent confrontations that destabilize entire regions.